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Table 1 Input parameters to the Monte Carlo analysis of minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) uncertainty

From: Uncertainty in techno-economic estimates of cellulosic ethanol production due to experimental measurement uncertainty

Parameter Base value (%) Maximum value (%) Uncertainty Source
Feedstock composition
Glucan 35.1 -- 0.53 [34] Table1
Xylan 19.5 -- 0.34
Lignin 15.8 -- 0.17
Pretreatment yield
Xylan to Xylose 90.0 95.0 2.7 this work
Arabinan to Arabinose 90.0 95.0 7.6
Enzymatic Hydrolysis yield
Cellulose to Glucose 90.0 95.0 5.2 this work
Fermentation yield
Glucose to Ethanol 95.0 100.0 3.00 this work
Xylose to Ethanol 85.0 95.0 3.00
  1. The base values for all parameters were taken from the 2011 Design Report[39]. Uncertainties for feedstock composition were taken from[34]. Uncertainties in calculated yield values are from this work. Using normal distributions of these feedstock composition and calculated yield values, we estimate a mode of $2.17/gal for the MESP with an uncertainty of $0.15/gal.