Table 1 Estimated land area attributed to corn ethanol production expressed as acreage and percent of US land dedicated to corn grain production for each of seven scenarios, without and with oil replacement, for three time horizons
| Â | Â | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Â | Â | Corn grain production | Â | Ethanol processing | Livestock feeding | |||
Yield technology | ||||||||
| Â | Time horizon | Medium | Low | High | Minimal | Full starch | Complete fiber | 65%:35% substitution ratio |
Acres without oil replacement (millions) | 2011 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 15.0 | 17.6 | 11.9 |
Ethanol ceiling | 11.0 (2013) | 13.0 (2015) | 8.8 (2013) | 11.6 (2013) | 11.8 (2013) | 14.0 (2013) | 8.8 (2013) | |
| Â | 2026 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 1.2 |
Percent of US corn land without oil replacement | 2011 | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 18% | 21% | 14% |
Ethanol ceiling | 13% (2013) | 16% (2015) | 10% (2013) | 14% (2013) | 14% (2013) | 17% (2013) | 10% (2013) | |
| Â | 2026 | 4% | 6% | 2Â % | 10% | 5% | 8% | 1% |
Acres with oil replacement (millions) | 2011 | 20.9 | 20.9 | 20.9 | 20.9 | 21.5 | 22.4 | 20.5 |
Ethanol ceiling | 18.4 (2013) | 20.4 (2015) | 16.2 (2013) | 19.0 (2013) | 18.6 (2013) | 18.8 (2013) | 17.9 (2013) | |
| Â | 2026 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 9.4 | 15.6 | 11.3 | 11.8 | 10.3 |
Percent of US corn land with oil replacement | 2011 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 26% | 27% | 24% |
Ethanol ceiling | 22% (2013) | 24Â % (2015) | 19Â % (2013) | 23% (2013) | 22% (2013) | 22% (2013) | 21% (2013) | |
| Â | 2026 | 13% | 15% | 11% | 19% | 13% | 14% | 12% |