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Table 1 Estimated land area attributed to corn ethanol production expressed as acreage and percent of US land dedicated to corn grain production for each of seven scenarios, without and with oil replacement, for three time horizons

From: Land usage attributed to corn ethanol production in the United States: sensitivity to technological advances in corn grain yield, ethanol conversion, and co-product utilization

   1 2 3 4 5 6 7
   Corn grain production   Ethanol processing Livestock feeding
Yield technology
  Time horizon Medium Low High Minimal Full starch Complete fiber 65%:35% substitution ratio
Acres without oil replacement (millions) 2011 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 15.0 17.6 11.9
Ethanol ceiling 11.0 (2013) 13.0 (2015) 8.8 (2013) 11.6 (2013) 11.8 (2013) 14.0 (2013) 8.8 (2013)
  2026 3.6 5.3 2.0 8.2 4.4 7.0 1.2
Percent of US corn land without oil replacement 2011 17% 17% 17% 17% 18% 21% 14%
Ethanol ceiling 13% (2013) 16% (2015) 10% (2013) 14% (2013) 14% (2013) 17% (2013) 10% (2013)
  2026 4% 6% 2 % 10% 5% 8% 1%
Acres with oil replacement (millions) 2011 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 21.5 22.4 20.5
Ethanol ceiling 18.4 (2013) 20.4 (2015) 16.2 (2013) 19.0 (2013) 18.6 (2013) 18.8 (2013) 17.9 (2013)
  2026 11.0 12.9 9.4 15.6 11.3 11.8 10.3
Percent of US corn land with oil replacement 2011 25% 25% 25% 25% 26% 27% 24%
Ethanol ceiling 22% (2013) 24 % (2015) 19 % (2013) 23% (2013) 22% (2013) 22% (2013) 21% (2013)
  2026 13% 15% 11% 19% 13% 14% 12%