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Table 2 Scenario 1 corn yield forecast (bu/A) by year through 2026 and contributing technology factors with associated step changes

From: Land usage attributed to corn ethanol production in the United States: sensitivity to technological advances in corn grain yield, ethanol conversion, and co-product utilization

Year of maximum adoption for specified technology factora

Year

Conventional breeding

Advanced breeding technologyb

Sub-total

Biotechnology traitsc

Sub-total

Agronomic improvementsd

Total corn yield

 

2011e

147.2

0

147.2

0

147.2

0

147.2

 

2012e

123.4

0

123.4

0

123.4

0

123.4

 

2013

169.9

0.25

170.2

0

170.2

0

170.2

 

2014

171.7

0.50

172.2

0

172.2

0

172.2

1

2015

173.5

1.00

174.5

0

174.5

0

174.5

3

2016

175.3

2.00

177.3

0

177.3

3

180.3

 

2017

177.1

3.00

180.1

0

180.1

3

183.1

2

2018

178.9

4.00

182.9

10

192.9

3

195.9

 

2019

180.7

5.00

185.7

10

195.7

3

198.7

3

2020

182.5

6.00

188.5

10

198.5

6

204.5

 

2021

184.3

7.00

191.3

10

201.3

6

207.3

2

2022

186.1

8.00

194.1

20

214.1

6

220.1

 

2023

187.9

9.00

196.9

20

216.9

6

222.9

3

2024

189.7

10.00

199.7

20

219.7

9

228.7

2

2025

191.5

11.00

202.5

30

232.5

9

241.5

 

2026

193.3

12.00

205.3

30

235.3

9

244.3

  1. aNote that multiple waves are anticipated for some technology factors. bAdvanced breeding technology comprises genomic-based approaches to crop improvement including DNA sequencing, molecular markers, and doubled haploidy. This class of technologies does not include genetic engineering. cBiotechnology traits comprises value-added characteristics manifested through genetic modification. dAgronomic improvements comprise cultural production practices that relate to the way the corn crop is managed. eActual (not forecasted) US average yields provided for this year.