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Table 2 Scenario 1 corn yield forecast (bu/A) by year through 2026 and contributing technology factors with associated step changes

From: Land usage attributed to corn ethanol production in the United States: sensitivity to technological advances in corn grain yield, ethanol conversion, and co-product utilization

Year of maximum adoption for specified technology factora Year Conventional breeding Advanced breeding technologyb Sub-total Biotechnology traitsc Sub-total Agronomic improvementsd Total corn yield
  2011e 147.2 0 147.2 0 147.2 0 147.2
  2012e 123.4 0 123.4 0 123.4 0 123.4
  2013 169.9 0.25 170.2 0 170.2 0 170.2
  2014 171.7 0.50 172.2 0 172.2 0 172.2
1 2015 173.5 1.00 174.5 0 174.5 0 174.5
3 2016 175.3 2.00 177.3 0 177.3 3 180.3
  2017 177.1 3.00 180.1 0 180.1 3 183.1
2 2018 178.9 4.00 182.9 10 192.9 3 195.9
  2019 180.7 5.00 185.7 10 195.7 3 198.7
3 2020 182.5 6.00 188.5 10 198.5 6 204.5
  2021 184.3 7.00 191.3 10 201.3 6 207.3
2 2022 186.1 8.00 194.1 20 214.1 6 220.1
  2023 187.9 9.00 196.9 20 216.9 6 222.9
3 2024 189.7 10.00 199.7 20 219.7 9 228.7
2 2025 191.5 11.00 202.5 30 232.5 9 241.5
  2026 193.3 12.00 205.3 30 235.3 9 244.3
  1. aNote that multiple waves are anticipated for some technology factors. bAdvanced breeding technology comprises genomic-based approaches to crop improvement including DNA sequencing, molecular markers, and doubled haploidy. This class of technologies does not include genetic engineering. cBiotechnology traits comprises value-added characteristics manifested through genetic modification. dAgronomic improvements comprise cultural production practices that relate to the way the corn crop is managed. eActual (not forecasted) US average yields provided for this year.