The commercial performance of cellulosic ethanol supply-chains in Europe

Table 7 Ethanol price determinants

Variable	Value (₂₀₀₅US$ litre^-1)	Comment	Reference
Gasoline prices	0.43	Average EU wholesale price in 2005 (oil price of US$62 barrel^-1.	[33]
	0.67	Estimated wholesale price for an oil price of US$100 barrel^-1.
	0.98	Estimated wholesale price for an oil price of US$150 barrel^-1.
Average value of subsidy^a	0.28	Average difference between price of ethanol and gasoline. The principal assumption is that the price difference can be ascribed solely to EU subsidy regimes.
Margin incentive^b	0.027	Mid-point estimate for the US market.	[32]
Transport and distribution costs	0.032	Upper bound estimate for ethanol transport in US market.	[32]

^aEthanol: market fuel ethanol spot – FOB Rotterdam: 04.07.2006–07.08.2007. Gasoline price: unleaded – FOB Rotterdam barges: 04.07.2006–07/08/07.
^bThe margin incentive represents a discount to the purchaser to incentivise the use of ethanol compared with alternatives.

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